AGP Executive Report

Oman-Iran Mediation: Iran says the US has no role in its talks with Oman on reopening Strait of Hormuz, while deputy foreign ministers discuss shared principles for safe passage and possible transit fees—yet Tehran insists the strait remains closed and traffic rules stay under its supervision. Shipping Disruption: Strait crossings reportedly plunge about 70% as tanker traffic shifts toward an Iranian-designated route; CENTCOM says 17 commercial vessels were redirected, two disabled and two boarded amid the naval blockade. Energy Markets: Oil slides sharply (Brent down around 6-10% in the latest reports) as the US-Iran pause eases supply fears, but markets stay jumpy with Houthis claiming drone strikes on Saudi Aramco-linked facilities. Diplomacy vs. Risk: Trump says “good talks” with Iran and a deal are possible, warning strikes resume if talks fail; Iran denies direct US negotiations and signals it’s testing the pause. Trade & Industry: India’s engineering exports rise 21% in June, with Oman shipments jumping five-fold—highlighting how Hormuz/Red Sea disruptions are reshaping regional trade flows. Oman Business: Oman invites consultancy bids for 4GW solar IPP projects, while Oman–Algeria ties in ICT and digital economy get a boost.

Oman Energy & Renewables: Oman invites consultancy bids for four 1GW utility-scale solar IPP projects (total 4GW), targeting commercial operations by Q2 2030, with bids due Aug 26, 2026—part of the push to diversify the energy mix. Strait of Hormuz Watch: As US-Iran strikes pause and diplomacy gains room, Iran says it still controls Hormuz and is not seeking US talks; Iranian state media also reported five ships redirected after turning off transponders, while a tanker explosion after a mine strike highlights ongoing shipping risks. Markets & Cost Signals: The de-escalation helped lift global sentiment—oil slid sharply (Brent near $90) and gold climbed toward $4,100—while investors look ahead to major earnings and central bank moves. Oman’s Regional Business Links: Oman and Algeria are exploring ICT and digital transformation partnerships, with an Omani delegation visiting Algeria to discuss joint initiatives. Trade & Industry: India’s engineering goods exports rose 21% in June, with shipments to Oman jumping more than five-fold after the India-Oman FTA. Consumer Safety: Oman bans the “Na! Na! Na! Surprise” interactive children’s doll model over chemical safety concerns, ordering retailers to stop sales. Aviation/Logistics: flydubai resumes daily flights to Budapest, boosting connectivity via Dubai for travellers including Oman-bound routes.

Oman-Iran Mediation: Oman’s technical talks with Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz are showing “positive progress,” with proposals discussed for safer shipping corridors and a voluntary payment mechanism for vessels using services in the strait. US-Iran De-escalation: The US paused attacks on Iran for a second straight day and Tehran said it also halted retaliatory strikes, as diplomacy presses for an interim ceasefire—though officials warn the pause is not a permanent end to hostilities. Shipping Risk: Reports say an oil tanker struck a naval mine and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran also claims it halted six commercial ships—keeping traffic effectively frozen and raising insurance and logistics concerns. Energy Markets: Oil prices eased after the strike pause, but analysts warn the wider conflict—plus Red Sea disruptions from Houthi attacks—could tighten refined products and keep markets under pressure. Regional Fallout: Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reiterated support for Hezbollah, signaling the conflict’s political endgame remains far from settled.

Oman–Philippines Diplomacy: Oman’s Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi met Philippines DFA Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro on the sidelines of the 3rd Oman-Philippines Investment Forum, with both sides pushing regular high-level visits and progress on an investment promotion and protection deal plus a double-taxation agreement, spanning trade, investment, finance, tourism, logistics and education. Hormuz Shipping Talks: Iran says it made “productive” progress with Oman on operational mechanisms for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, stressing maritime traffic status has not changed; discussions follow earlier disputes over transit service fees and sovereignty. US–Iran Military Pause: The US paused planned airstrikes on Iran after 13 straight nights, while the naval blockade remains in effect, as CENTCOM reported redirecting 12 commercial vessels and disabling/boarding others to enforce compliance. Regional Energy Pressure: As Hormuz diplomacy continues, the Red Sea remains volatile, with Houthis firing at Saudi Aramco-linked facilities and Saudi-led coalition strikes reported in response, raising fresh risks for shipping and fuel flows. Oman Consumer Enforcement: Oman’s CPA seized 18,000+ expired products and confiscated nearly 54,000 tobacco packs during the week ending July 25, alongside vehicle recall actions and consumer-safety campaigns ahead of peak tourism.

Hormuz Diplomacy Watch: Oman-linked talks in Tehran are coinciding with a reported pause in US strikes on Iran after nearly 13 nights, as Washington weighs a negotiated off-ramp while keeping military options ready. Maritime Security: Iran’s foreign minister says the US violated the Hormuz memorandum by opening an alternative corridor, while Iran also stopped four vessels after warning shots. Red Sea Shockwaves: Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia escalated again, with claims of missile and drone strikes on Aramco facilities in Yanbu and Jizan, raising fresh fears for Bab el-Mandeb shipping. Oman Business & Energy: PDO signed a five-year power deal to supply up to 200MW to Oman’s grid, and Oman’s recycling push hit about 39% with 1.37mn tonnes recycled. Innovation & Industry: An Omani AI “Guardian” project made the world’s top 13 at the London youth science forum, while OIA expands innovation investments via Cambridge and Oxford ecosystems. Agribusiness Spotlight: Dhofar’s honey and turmeric exhibition in Salalah supports local producers and food processing. Markets: Industrial companies listed on Muscat Stock Exchange saw profits rise 46.8% in H1 2026, led by Oman India Fertilizer.

Oman Investment & Innovation: Oman Investment Authority (OIA) is widening its global innovation footprint with investments in Cambridge Capital Innovation and Oxford Science Projects, aiming to speed up knowledge and technology transfer in life sciences, healthcare and advanced tech. FDI Momentum: Oman’s foreign direct investment stock rose 8.7% to OMR32.2bn in Q1 2026, with new inflows of OMR2.5bn, as reforms and the Invest in Oman platform keep attracting investors. Strait of Hormuz Shipping Risk: The US and UK are planning a high-level London meeting to form an international coalition to protect commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, as the US-Iran standoff keeps disrupting maritime trade. Energy Watch: Oil eased after a spike above $100 as OPEC signalled more supply, with Reuters reporting Oman among countries expected to raise September production targets. Social & Business Inclusion: Oman launched “Purple Saturday” to promote accessibility for persons with disabilities, encouraging retailers to offer discounts and improve inclusive shopping experiences. Maritime Safety Concerns: UNOPS says a confidence-building mechanism is ready to help secure safe transit through Hormuz, but requires agreement from the parties involved.

Strait of Hormuz Shipping Shock: The U.S. keeps expanding strikes after the July ceasefire collapse, while traders now price a slow return to normal traffic through Hormuz—Kalshi puts the chance of regular shipping by July 2027 at under 50%. Maritime Safety in Focus: Iran’s state broadcaster claims a U.S. missile hit an LPG tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, killing two crew; separate reports say an LPG tanker with 28 Indian crew was attacked but all were safe. Oman’s Role at the Table: An Omani delegation has arrived in Tehran to discuss mechanisms for managing navigation through Hormuz as U.S.-Iran attacks continue. Red Sea Escalation: Houthis have widened pressure by targeting Saudi-linked shipping near Bab el-Mandeb, lifting crude premiums and pushing oil back above $100 before a later pullback. Energy Costs for the Region: Middle East crude premiums rose to two-month highs, with Oman’s premium also climbing as rerouting and supply disruptions bite. Trade Ripple Effects: The U.S. launched sweeping forced-labour tariffs affecting Oman and other Gulf states, adding another cost layer for regional business.

Oman–Netherlands Diplomacy: Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi met Tom Berendsen in Manila, reaffirming Oman’s push for freedom of navigation and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, alongside broader cooperation with the Netherlands. Maritime Security & GCC Unity: GCC states and Jordan condemned Iran’s attacks as “explicit acts of aggression,” stressing self-defence and urging UN action, as shipping risks keep rising across Hormuz and the Red Sea. Energy Routes Under Pressure: With Houthis targeting Saudi tankers and Hormuz traffic near-stalling, Brent jumped above $100; Gulf producers are accelerating pipeline plans to bypass chokepoints, including projects linking to Red Sea and Gulf of Oman terminals. Oman in the Mix: Oman’s authorities moved on maritime safety after a stranded tanker incident, while regional disruptions keep reshaping logistics and fuel flows. US Forced-Labour Tariffs: The US imposed new 10–12.5% tariffs on 60 economies over forced-labour claims, a move that could ripple into textile and apparel supply chains. Local Enforcement: Oman’s Consumer Protection Authority and Environment Authority inspected Barka shops over the plastic bag ban, tightening compliance. Business Update: Indo SMC Limited reported 135.96% Q1 FY27 revenue growth, driven by capacity expansion and exports.

Tariff Shock (US trade): The Trump administration announced new 10%–12.5% tariffs on 60 countries over alleged forced-labour failures, replacing emergency duties struck down by the US Supreme Court, with major partners including Mexico, Canada, China and the EU facing action from July 24. GCC Security (Iran tensions): GCC states and Jordan condemned Iran’s attacks on civilian infrastructure and energy assets, reaffirming self-defence rights and urging urgent UN action. Energy & Shipping (Hormuz/Red Sea): Oil surged back above $100 a barrel after Houthi strikes on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and renewed Strait of Hormuz disruption, while maritime insurance and freight costs rise and shipping routes are rerouted. Oman Business & Logistics (trade resilience): Gulf Warehousing Company reported Q2 net profit of QR29mn on QR359mn revenues, citing engineered logistics solutions and multimodal GCC trade corridors to keep supply chains moving amid regional disruptions. Oman Policy (digital radio): Oman rolled out an updated GCC technical regulation for T-DAB+ terrestrial digital radio receivers to improve device performance and consumer protection. Oman-Agriculture (food sector): Dhofar opened an Omani honey and turmeric exhibition in Salalah to support producers and boost local food marketing. Oman-Philippines (investment forum): Oman and the Philippines will hold a high-level strategic forum in Manila on July 26 focused on trade, investment, tourism, technology, logistics, fisheries and agriculture.

Energy & Shipping Shock: Oil prices surged for a fifth straight day as US-Iran tensions and Houthi attacks raise fears of supply disruptions, with Brent jumping to around $97 and reports of a tanker fire near Oman after Iran-linked claims of a mined route and “complete closure” of the Strait of Hormuz. Red Sea Risk: The Houthis said they attacked Saudi tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb area, while shipping data showed Chinese supertankers heading to exit the Red Sea—testing how tight any blockade becomes. Oman Power Deal: Nama Water and Power Procurement signed a power purchase agreement with Petroleum Development Oman for up to 200MW over five years, aimed at strengthening grid reliability. Renewables Build-Out: Chinese EPC contractor Shanxi Installation won a $222m deal for Oman’s 500MW Al Kamil I Solar IPP, covering design, supply, grid connection and 2.5 years of O&M. Standards & Consumer Protection: Oman adopted new quality standards for frankincense essential oil and distilled frankincense water, and a court ruling fined auto repair workshops for consumer rights violations. Diplomacy & Trade Links: Oman’s ties with partners stayed active, including discussions on strengthening cooperation through regional forums and export diversification via FTAs.

Oman-EU Diplomacy: Oman and the EU have signed an agreement to set up a permanent EU diplomatic mission in Muscat, aiming to deepen cooperation across technology, energy, logistics, banking, minerals, infrastructure, food and water security, and maritime security. Shipping & Energy Risk (Hormuz): Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are still rattling trade: US President Donald Trump warned he will target an Iranian bridge or power plant for every ship attack, while shipping traffic has fallen sharply as insurers and crews stay cautious. DP World Logistics Push (UAE): DP World signed a 50-year deal with Fujairah Ports Authority to develop two multipurpose container terminals—Al Rugaylat and Dibba—designed to expand UAE capacity and offer an alternative route that avoids transits through Hormuz. Oman Development Watch: In Al Sharqiyah North, health services are expanding for more than 320,000 people, while Al Dhahirah has completed 35% of falaj maintenance work to boost farm productivity. Infrastructure & Industry (Regional): A MEED Projects Index update shows Iraq leading Middle East project growth, with Oman ranking second after adding $7bn to its projects market.

Oman-EU Diplomacy: Oman and the European Union signed an agreement to establish a permanent EU diplomatic mission in Muscat, expanding cooperation across tech, energy, logistics, banking, critical minerals, infrastructure, training, food and water security, and maritime security. Red Sea Shipping Shock: Three tankers carrying Saudi crude for India and China made U-turns in the Red Sea after Houthi warnings, adding pressure to already strained energy routes as the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint. US-Iran Strikes Continue: The US completed its 11th straight night of strikes on Iran, targeting hangars and drone storage, while diplomacy efforts via Pakistan appear stalled and the conflict keeps widening across the Gulf. GCC Construction Watch: S&P says Gulf construction stays resilient on megaprojects and government spending, but real estate and corporate profits face mounting pressure from higher costs, weaker sentiment, and logistics disruption. Oman Trade & Industry: Al Mazunah Free Zone held talks with Yemeni import-export firms to boost cross-border trade, including a proposed six-month open market exhibition pilot. Oman Renewables & Power: Oman’s Al Kamil 1 solar IPP is among renewables aimed for commissioning between 2027 and 2029. World Kiswahili Day in Muscat: Tanzania’s embassy in Oman hosted the maiden commemoration of World Kiswahili Day, highlighting Kiswahili’s role in peace and economic diplomacy.

Middle East Energy & Shipping: Strait of Hormuz transits are back to about 90% below pre-conflict levels, with only ~12 crossings a day and crude flow easing to ~1.5m bpd, as US-Iran strikes continue and tankers report attacks near Oman; in parallel, Yemen’s Houthis warned Saudi ports and a Red Sea reroute is already underway, with Saudi crude tankers turning back toward the Suez. Diplomacy Under Pressure: Mediators led by Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and Oman are pushing a 10-day US-Iran truce to reopen Hormuz and clarify last month’s shipping terms, but Iran and the US keep escalating, including Iran’s Interior Minister visiting Pakistan for talks. Oman Energy Policy: Oman opened its renewable electricity market for direct power sales under APSR Decision 54/2026, moving beyond the single-buyer model run by Nama PWP. Oman Renewables & Industry Deals: Oman’s Nama PWP invited bids for 1,000MW of solar power (bids due Aug 26, 2030 commissioning target), and Oman awards a $210m EPC contract for Al Kamil Solar 1; Oman Zinc broke ground on a $50m Sohar facility. Oman Business & Labour: More Omanis are joining hotel jobs as expatriate numbers fall, even as hotel guests and occupancy decline. Corporate Results: Weatherford reported Q2 2026 results and announced expansion via an acquisition of NCS Multistage.

Strait of Hormuz Shipping Shock: Iran says it attacked tankers in the Strait of Hormuz off Oman, forcing crews to abandon vessels, as the US carried out its 10th straight night of strikes aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to target commercial shipping; Red Sea Spillover: Yemen’s Houthis threatened a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia via Bab al-Mandeb, raising the risk of wider disruption beyond the Gulf; Diplomacy vs Escalation: Mediators including Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and Oman have floated a 10-day ceasefire to reopen Hormuz lanes, but US officials say Washington is also preparing for talks to fail; Oman-linked Maritime Safety: UKMTO reported projectile strikes near Limah and other incidents off Oman/UAE, while shipping data showed crossings falling sharply and tankers increasingly avoiding the route; Energy Prices: Oil held near one-month highs as supply fears lingered; Local Business & Industry: Novo Nordisk appointed Venkat Kalyan as General Manager for GCC operations covering Oman, and Jindal Steel Oman set a new benchmark for DRI output at its Sohar plant; Oman Governance & People: Oman’s Labour Ministry pushed midday work ban compliance, and Muscat Municipality announced temporary traffic diversions for an Al Ansab–Al Jifnain road project.

Strait of Hormuz Security: Two Greek-owned tankers were hit by projectiles off Oman, with crews evacuated and no pollution reported, as shipping stays jittery amid US-Iran strikes. Gulf Energy Shock: Oil jumped again on renewed escalation; Brent pushed above $90 and US petrol prices returned to around $4 a gallon, while Hormuz traffic remains subdued. Regional Trade Pressure: Yemen’s Houthis announced a “maritime embargo” against Saudi Arabia, raising fears for the Red Sea bypass route and insurance costs for merchants. Oman Business & Connectivity: Oman Air CEO said the carrier is still aiming for profitability, adding new routes and reshaping services to the Indian subcontinent as GCC airports reopen. Oman Infrastructure for Food Security: Oman is pushing road projects, including a 70km link to Al Namaa Poultry, to cut logistics costs and support agricultural supply chains. Oman Sustainability Push: Oman climbed to 49th in the Environmental Performance Index, with top scores in waste management and clean household fuel. EU Shipping Protection: The EU naval mission marked 29 months, saying it has supported over 2,200 vessels in the Red Sea.

Strait of Hormuz Shockwaves: Iran says its role in the Strait of Hormuz is “non-negotiable” and says it will coordinate with Oman on security, as the US continues a ninth straight night of strikes and Iran claims two tankers exploded and were immobilised near Omani waters. Shipping Disruption: Visible traffic through Hormuz was near standstill, with UKMTO reporting a vessel fire off Kumzar (near Oman) after an unknown projectile, while ship-tracking points to more vessels switching off transponders or avoiding the area. Energy Markets: Brent jumped above $90 a barrel on renewed escalation, with oil shipments and global inflation fears back in focus. Regional Pressure on Oman: US officials urged allies to protect Hormuz, while the conflict’s maritime risks are directly hitting Oman-adjacent routes and raising safety concerns for crews and cargo. Oman Business Watch: Separate from the war, Oman’s hospitality sector saw Q1 hotel revenues rise 8.4% to OMR85.4m, even as guest volumes softened, and Oman continues road delivery with RO105m+ projects in North Al Sharqiyah.