AGP Executive Report

Oman Fiscal Watch: Oman reported a 2025 budget deficit of OMR 461m, 26% lower than forecast, helped by higher oil and gas receipts; non-oil revenues also rose as VAT and fees continued to build a sturdier base. Oman Development Push: Development spending jumped to RO 1.577bn in 2025, with extra allocations aimed at faster delivery, led by infrastructure and social projects. Hormuz Shipping Shock: The Strait of Hormuz remains the week’s biggest business risk as the US and Iran move toward a 60-day roadmap, while Iran’s claims of closure and talk of fees keep insurers and shippers on edge; Maersk warned tolls would set a dangerous precedent. Regional Trade Recovery: UAE ports are set to resume accepting Iranian vessels, easing disruption for merchants and supply chains that had been rerouted via Oman and Iraq. Energy & LNG Moves: Qatar is bringing empty LNG tankers back toward Hormuz to restart exports after Ras Laffan disruptions, while global oil demand forecasts soften as the crisis weighs on consumption. Oman Renewables & Industry: Oman is set to launch its first community solar power station under “Imtidad,” and Holcim UAE rolled out ECOCycle to recycle construction waste—both signals of a broader shift toward sustainable growth.

Strait of Hormuz Talks Under Strain: US Vice President JD Vance arrived in Switzerland to push a 60-day US-Iran peace sprint, but Iran says it has re-closed the Strait of Hormuz amid Lebanon fighting—while the US and shipping trackers report traffic continued, keeping oil and trade uncertainty high. Toll Fight: Germany’s foreign minister warned against any Strait toll system, stressing free passage under international law, as US President Trump floated US-controlled tolls if talks fail. Oman Energy Move: Oman’s APSR will launch its first community solar power station under the “Imtidad” programme, letting residents and organisations buy solar credits without rooftop panels. Oman Trade & Fiscal Snapshot: Oman reported a Q1 2026 trade surplus of OMR 1.54bn despite weaker oil and gas exports, while 2025 public revenues rose 8% to OMR 12.122bn as the deficit narrowed. Business Growth: OCCI launched the 5th Franchise Programme to help Omani brands and SMEs scale regionally, and Oman’s crowdfunding market surged in 2025 with 243 projects funded. Maritime Safety Spotlight: Oman’s Royal Navy marked World Hydrography Day, highlighting digital ocean data sharing for safer navigation.

Strait of Hormuz Watch: Iran again claimed it closed the Strait of Hormuz over alleged ceasefire breaches, while the US said traffic is continuing and shipping remains under monitoring—keeping energy and logistics firms on edge. Toll Tension: Trump said there will be no Hormuz tolls for 60 days during a ceasefire window, but warned the US could impose charges later if talks fail, adding fresh uncertainty for insurers and freight planners. Shipping Reality Check: Even with reopening hopes, tanker and shipping groups warned normal operations may take weeks to months, citing around 80 mines in the main lane and navigational risks—so recovery won’t be instant. Oman Energy Move: Oman’s “Imtidad” programme will launch the Sultanate’s first community solar power station, letting residents and organisations subscribe via grid-connected credits to cut electricity bills. Oman Markets: Muscat Stock Exchange’s main index fell 52 points last week as investors rotated liquidity ahead of the Oman India Fertiliser Company (OMIFCO) IPO. Oman Education Ties: An Omani delegation met Arabian Gulf University officials to expand higher-education cooperation, student support and research.

Strait of Hormuz Shock: Iran announced it has closed the Strait of Hormuz again, blaming alleged US and Israeli breaches of a newly signed MoU and continued attacks in southern Lebanon—though US CENTCOM said commercial traffic is still moving, with 55 merchant ships transiting and safe passage intact. Energy & Shipping Ripple: The back-and-forth is keeping oil and freight costs volatile and delaying a full return to normal shipping as vessels and insurers wait for clearer rules. Oman Education Ties: Oman and Arabian Gulf University (AGU) discussed expanding higher education, student support and research cooperation after an Omani delegation visited AGU’s graduation ceremony in Bahrain. Oman Capital Markets: Muscat Stock Exchange slipped 52 points in the week as investors adjusted around the Oman India Fertiliser Company (OMIFCO) IPO subscription. Oman Business Growth: OCCI’s Franchise Programme (5th edition) is set to launch on 21 June to back Omani brands and SME expansion under Oman Vision 2040. Oman Renewables: Oman will launch the “Imtidad” Community Solar Power Stations Programme, letting residents and businesses get solar credits on electricity bills without installing panels. Oman Industry Update: Oman’s salt sector is shifting into specialised downstream production with major investment plans aimed at higher-value exports.

Strait of Hormuz Rules Tighten: Iran has introduced a permit-and-registration system for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, requiring requests 48 hours ahead, insurance details and use of a northern route—while hinting that “insurance fees” and other charges could follow after a 60-day free period. Shipping Cautious, Mines Still a Factor: Even as traffic starts to climb after the US-Iran MoU, UKMTO cut its threat level to “moderate” but warned mines and naval presence remain; major shipping groups say normal levels won’t return until mines are cleared and transit rules are fully coordinated. Oman Industry Push: Oman’s salt sector is targeting major expansion with over $1bn in investments to scale high-purity and food-grade output and move into value-added chemicals. Digital Trade Facilitation: The Oman Business Platform is adding self-service features for commercial transactions, including ownership transfers and merger options, as investor use shifts further online. Duqm Waterfront Plan: OPAZ unveiled a 31 sq km Duqm waterfront master plan to grow tourism and investment, targeting thousands of hotel and residential units by 2040. Green Hydrogen Deal: ACME Group will invest about $4.2bn in Duqm green hydrogen and green ammonia phases 2 and 3, boosting large-scale clean energy production. Defense Tech Interest: BAE says global Eurofighter users—including Oman—show strong interest in integrating the APKWS “drone killer” capability after RAF Typhoon success.

Green Hydrogen Push: ACME Group will invest about USD 4.2bn to expand its Duqm green hydrogen and green ammonia project (phases 2 and 3), lifting output to roughly 71,000 tonnes of hydrogen and 400,000 tonnes of ammonia per year per phase, as Oman deepens its clean-energy industrial base. Hormuz Shipping Reality Check: After the US-Iran MoU, oil and commercial traffic is rising, but the Strait of Hormuz is still far from “business as usual” with 500+ ships waiting and at least one mine reported near the route. US Blockade Lifted: CENTCOM says the US has lifted its blockade on maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports, while traffic counts hit the highest since mid-April (about 25 crossings on Thursday). Iran’s New Rules: Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority has introduced mandatory permits and approved insurance, with a designated northern route and an online registration process—fueling fears of future fees. Omanhash Crypto Control: Oman launched Omanhash, a compulsory national Bitcoin mining pool for all licensed miners, centralising monitoring of earnings and power use under a government-linked framework. Regional Logistics Boost: DHL, GWC and Oman Air Cargo are expanding Gulf “land bridge” capacity to reduce reliance on sea routes as Hormuz disruption lingers.

Strait of Hormuz Reopens, But Shipping Still Faces Mine Risk: The US lifted its naval blockade of Iran and tankers began moving again after the US-Iran interim MoU took effect, with the 60-day negotiation clock started and oil prices sliding as markets priced in easing supply fears. Diplomacy Gets Messy: Switzerland said planned talks were postponed after US VP JD Vance cancelled a trip to Geneva, adding uncertainty to the path toward a final settlement. Toll Debate Unresolved: The MoU promises “no charge” transit for 60 days, but the longer-term question of whether Iran and Oman can set fees remains a live concern for shipowners and Gulf producers. Oman Agriculture Spotlight: In Oman, a Tanuf vineyard in Nizwa delivered a promising first harvest, highlighting momentum in local grape cultivation and agricultural diversification. Regional Energy Signals: Kuwait Petroleum offered July crude after lifting force majeure, while traders watched large volumes of oil already on standby in the Gulf for a faster return to flows.

Strait of Hormuz Reopens: The US lifted its naval blockade on Iran’s ports and coastal areas, and tankers began transiting the Strait of Hormuz after the US-Iran interim 14-point MoU took effect, with CENTCOM saying enforcement has ceased while ships stay nearby to ensure the deal is followed. Shipping Cautious Comeback: Early traffic is returning as mine-clearing and safety checks continue; maritime trackers and data firms report a trickle of crossings and note that full normalcy will take weeks. Oil Market Relief, Still Volatile: Brent slid to the lowest since late March as markets priced faster supply restoration, though analysts warn shipping risks and possible future disputes could cap how quickly flows recover. Tolls Debate Looms: Officials and analysts say the 60-day “no-charge” transit is clear, but longer-term control and any future fees remain a major uncertainty for regional trade. Oman Angle: Iran’s deal text points to discussions with Oman on future administration and maritime services of the strait, keeping Muscat’s role in regional logistics and navigation in focus. OmanHash Crypto Push: Oman launched a state-backed bitcoin mining pool, OmanHash.om, requiring licensed miners to participate, as the country doubles down on digital infrastructure.

US-Iran Ceasefire Text: The US and Iran published the full “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding” after presidents digitally signed it, calling for an immediate and permanent halt to military operations, a 60-day push toward a final settlement, sanctions relief steps, reconstruction planning, and safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Hormuz Shipping Reset: The MoU says the US will remove its naval blockade within 30 days and Iran will ensure fee-free commercial passage for 60 days, aiming to restart oil flows even as markets watch for delays and compliance. Oman Link in Navigation Talks: Iran said it is coordinating with Oman and others on managing Hormuz navigation, underscoring Oman’s role in keeping regional sea lanes workable. Maritime Tragedy Repatriation: In Oman waters, the Indian Embassy confirmed the repatriation of two sailors killed in the MT Settebello attack, while 21 rescued crew members returned safely. GCC Logistics Angle: Gulf Warehousing Company (GWC) announced an air-to-land logistics corridor using the TIR system, with Oman included in its cross-border network—an example of how regional supply chains are adapting to disruption risk.

US-Iran Maritime Breakthrough: The US has released the text of a 14-point interim MoU with Iran that would end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and restart Iranian oil exports, with a 60-day negotiation window in Switzerland and downblending of enriched uranium under IAEA supervision; officials also say Hormuz passage is toll-free for 60 days only, while sanctions relief is staged and many nuclear details are deferred. G7 Backing: G7 leaders, including France’s Macron, backed the framework as a way to stop instability and protect global economies, even as Trump warned the deal is not final and military pressure could return. Shipping Reality Check for Oman: Despite reopening signals, shipping traffic is still cautious and slow to normalize due to mines, technical hurdles, and safety concerns—an issue Oman’s maritime community will watch closely as trade routes through Hormuz affect regional logistics and energy flows. Oman Business & Logistics: Oman participated in a GCC Transport and Communications Ministers meeting on transport and logistics integration, including a railway connectivity project. Mining Finance: Sohar International signed a RO14mn strategic financing deal with OMTC to support working capital for marketing and export of key minerals like gypsum and chromite ore. Sports Media: beIN renewed Wimbledon exclusive broadcast rights across MENA until 2030, boosting premium sports coverage for audiences in the region.

Maritime Security & Energy: PM Narendra Modi told G7 leaders in Evian that US strikes killing Indian seafarers show the Strait of Hormuz instability is hitting lives and the global economy, as markets bet on a US-Iran interim framework that would reopen Hormuz and ease oil prices. Oman Industry: Oman’s Duqm gas-fired power plant landed a $385m EPC deal for an 870MW project, supporting demand growth in the Duqm Special Economic Zone. Oman Energy Watch: Oman’s refining and petrochemical output was mixed in April 2026, with aviation fuel and some petrochemical gains offset by declines in key fuel categories. Digital Governance: Oman’s Government Communication Centre ran a forum for influencers and content creators on the legal rules for digital publishing, licensing and platform responsibilities. Business & Trade: Nissan Middle East reported FY2025 as its most profitable year on record, ending the period with 3% regional growth. Global Markets: Brent crude slid below $80 as peace prospects lifted sentiment, though analysts warn normal flows could take weeks or months. Oman-Linked Shipping Incident: India’s embassy in Oman confirmed repatriation of two crew deaths from the MT Settebello attack, after 21 were rescued.

Oman Under US Pressure Over Hormuz Fees: The White House is escalating pressure on Oman to cut diplomatic ties with Iran, citing intelligence that Muscat may have helped enable Iranian vessel fees in the Strait of Hormuz—an issue that could raise global shipping costs and energy prices. Hormuz Reopening Still Slow for Trade: Even after the US-Iran framework, shipping remains at a trickle; trackers say only a handful of crossings are happening daily, with mines, safety assurances and transit arrangements still unclear. US “Iran-Style” Oil Transfers: Reuters reports the US has run secret ship-to-ship oil transfers near Sohar (Oman) and Fujairah to keep exports moving, using drones and helicopters—highlighting how disruption continues despite diplomacy. Oman Business Impact: Oman Fisheries Company’s board resigned amid a liquidity crisis, while the IMF praised Omani economic resilience and reform momentum. Logistics & Services: Oman launched its first private vehicle inspection service centre, and Shura discussions reviewed progress on Logistics Strategy 2040. Maritime Safety Focus: PM Modi urged secure sea routes at the G7, stressing the human cost of Hormuz disruptions.

Oman Under US Pressure: The White House is escalating pressure on Oman to cut diplomatic ties with Iran, citing intelligence that Muscat may have helped Tehran impose fees on Strait of Hormuz shipping—warning of sanctions and possible force. Shipping Reality Check: Even with a US-Iran framework ceasefire, shipowners say Hormuz reopening won’t mean instant traffic; Mitsui O.S.K. expects weeks (or up to a month) for “material” safety conditions, while hundreds of vessels remain cautious. Energy Markets Watch: Oil slid to multi-month lows as markets priced in a possible end to the blockade, but uncertainty over mines, transit fees, and final terms keeps volatility high. Oman Projects & Tourism: Muttrah Cable Car is 90% complete with trial operations set for December, as Oman pushes tourism and investment. Industrial Incentives: Madayn is offering up to five years of rental incentives for investors in Al Suwaiq Industrial City to boost specialised industries and logistics. Maritime Safety & People: Indian crew rescues off Oman continue to dominate Gulf shipping coverage, underscoring how quickly regional tensions spill into real-world operations.

US-Iran Ceasefire & Hormuz Reopen: The US and Iran say a memorandum of understanding has been electronically signed, with a formal signing in Geneva expected Friday, promising a toll-free Strait of Hormuz for 60 days and a lift of the US naval blockade—though the text is still not public and long-term terms remain unclear. Shipping Reality Check: Even with reopening hopes, analysts warn oil and LNG flows won’t normalize overnight as ships, insurers, and captains wait for safety, mine clearance, and practical guidance; tracking shows only minimal crossings so far. IMF Watch: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva welcomed the ceasefire but warned energy recovery will take time and global growth risks persist. Oman Under Pressure: A separate report says Washington is escalating pressure on Oman to cut ties with Iran over claims Oman may have helped impose transit fees—an issue that could raise costs for global consumers. Oman Business & Industry: Locally, OPAZ is pushing a sharper focus on specialised industries across Oman’s zones, while OMIFCO is examining low-carbon ammonia pathways ahead of its IPO; Oman also announced construction on the Muttrah Square waterfront landmark and Salalah Airport’s renewed five-star service rating.

Oman & Shipping: Oman is in the spotlight as the US-Iran interim peace deal raises hopes of Strait of Hormuz reopening, but questions remain over “toll-free” passage and who controls traffic—an issue that could directly affect Oman’s maritime leverage and regional logistics. Energy Markets: Oil slid sharply after the announcement, with WTI near $80 and Brent below $84, as investors priced in lower war risk—yet traders are watching whether the reopening is smooth or delayed. Diplomacy & Trade Rules: Iran says traffic will be regulated by it and Oman, while the US promises toll-free access and lifts its naval blockade—leaving shipowners waiting for practical details. Seafarers in Oman: India’s ambassador met 20 rescued crew members of MT Jalveer in Muscat ahead of repatriation, underscoring how repeated incidents off Oman are driving diplomatic pressure. Oman Fisheries Contract: Oman awarded a fish landing centre contract in Qurayat (Bimmah), with a RO 2.4m budget and breakwaters to improve safety and capacity for the fishing sector. Regional Industry: Emirates Biotech plans to bring its Embio PLA biopolymer to Saudi Arabia’s plastics market, aligning with Vision 2030 localisation and sustainability goals.

Maritime Rescue in Oman: A US-coordinated rescue is underway after an Indian-flagged dhow, MSV Virat 1, began sinking off Oman with 14 Indian crew on board; all were later reported safe and transferred to MV Jabal Ali 9 heading to Mumbai, with the cause cited as mechanical/engine failure. Seafarer Death and Repatriation: Separately, an Indian officer died aboard MT Celestial near Duqm; the Indian Embassy in Muscat says it is coordinating with Omani authorities and the shipping company for prompt repatriation, while family members and unions are pressing for a full inquiry into medical support and delays. Gulf Shipping Security Rules: India’s DG Shipping has directed firms and placement agencies to restrict deployment of Indian seafarers to Gulf conflict areas, citing recent incidents around the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman. Oman Energy and Industry: Integrated Gas Company (IGC) says Oman’s gas demand is set to rise in a more complex phase, even as supply growth stays constrained, while Qatar’s energy minister met Oman’s energy counterpart to discuss cooperation. Local Development: Construction has started on Muttrah Square’s waterfront landmark in Muscat, and a fish landing centre contract worth OMR2.4mn was awarded in Qurayat. Environment Policy: Oman’s plastic shopping bag ban moves into its fifth phase from July 1, expanding restrictions to more retail activities. Cyber Growth: Oman’s cybersecurity market is projected to reach about $214m by 2031, supported by digital transformation and local solution development.